By John J. MetzlerThe world is entering a new more dangerous security phase; the winds of war which have been lashing parts of the planet for the past few years could well go to gale force and bring us to the verge of a global conflict. Though both the major land clashes in Ukraine and Gaza appear to be largely locked in bloody stalemate, these conflicts could easily escalate and spillover regionally.
Gen. Jack Keane a retired four star strategic analyst told Fox Business that the U.S. is “on a pathway to the third world war.” He cited a recent Congressional Commission on National Defense Strategy report that the U.S. faces “the most serious” and the most challenging threats since 1945 including the potential for a “near-term major war.”
He stated to Fox that “Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are working together collaborating, coordinating and truly helping each other.” Gen. Keane asserted, “The fact is that they perceive the United States as being weak, and they’re going to take advantage of it.”
Similarly speaking in London, the chiefs of both the British MI6 and the CIA asserted that the international order “is under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War.” A BBC report cited that the intelligence chiefs stressed that Russia’s war against Ukraine should be countered by continuing Western military support for Kyiv. Yet American CIA Chief William Burns conceded that “None of us should take lightly the risk of escalation.”
Beyond Ukraine they cite the rise of China as the main intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the century.
Related: In face of unified Mi6-CIA stance on Ukraine, Iran-Russia ties signal new power axis, September 11, 2024
All this comes amid the upcoming 79th annual General Assembly session of the United Nations. Here in New York political figures from 193 member states will postulate and proffer about peace while dithering dangerously near the precipice of wider war.
This isn’t to say the UN has not been seriously engaged in helping to support Ukraine’s sovereignty since the Russian invasion of 2022 nor for that matter not trying to contain the bloody conflicts in the Middle East with their epicenter in Gaza.
The UN Security Council has been in a near permanent meeting mode trying to thrash out solutions but to no avail politically. On the humanitarian side however, the organization has performed significant assistance in helping displaced persons and refugees.
The core challenge remains that neither the UN nor the U.S. has been able to stop the fighting; A politically log-jammed UN Security Council for the past decade sees the Russians and China face-off the Western powers with an almost guaranteed veto to any productive proposals. Security Council stalemate remains the crux of the dilemma.
One is tempted to say that the world situation evokes the late 1930’s, especially after the infamous Munich agreements of 1938 in which Britain and France diplomatically surrendered Czechoslovakia’s sovereignty to Hitler’s <em>diktat</em>. But are we reliving that era? Not really.
Western states through the NATO military alliance with the U.S. at the core are treaty bound to offer Europe deterrence from Moscow’s aggression. Moreover NATO, which now covers most of Europe, provides an iron clad defense for small, exposed countries such as the Baltic states and Poland.
Perennial conflict in the Middle East has reignited but not on the mass scale of past wars.
Fortunately, Arab states are not lining up against Israel. It’s the Iranian supplied and supported proxies such as Hamas, Hizbullah and the Houthis who are the current players. Moreover endless calls for ceasefire in Gaza come to naught. Hamas terrorists don’t want a deal but rather a churning conflict to fight both Israel and to widen the chances that a total Mideast war will pull in Iran’s Hizbullah forces in Lebanon. In the meantime, Israeli hostages languish in Hamas hell.
Besides the major conflicts and impending flareups, we still face a series of ethnic and religious off the radar conflicts in Syria over the past decade and Sudan. Fighting has created carnage and refugee dislocation spilling over into neighboring countries.
China and North Korea have not weighed in … yet. Beijing’s growing threat to democratic Taiwan and the South China Sea shipping lanes poses a clear and present danger to global security and commerce. So does North Korea’s unchecked ballistic missile program.
Against this backdrop there’s a hidden hand stirring disinformation in the run-up to the American presidential elections. Iran as well as China are primarily engaged in sowing discord and confusion among U.S. voters. It’s a classic tactic to play both sides against the middle.
These are dangerous times. But remember the Islamic jihadi terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001; We surmounted that tragedy and became stronger.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014).
Free Press International
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