By John J. MetzlerPresident Donald Trump has had it with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Gone are the days where it appeared that the Russians were ready for a negotiated “deal” or “ceasefire’ in the bloody Ukraine war.
Now Donald Trump has openly said that “Putin has been bull**ing him” all along about a much-anticipated ceasefire.
President Trump’s frustration in trying to stop the bloodletting in Ukraine as well as Russia’s escalation of the war has prompted the president to sarcastically warn, “Putin talks nice but then bombs everybody in the evening.”
To confront Moscow’s expanding air raids on Kyiv, the Trump Administration will send additional U.S. Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine in coordination with NATO. The European allies will pay for the American air defense ordinance being sent to beleaguered Ukraine.
Congress is equally prepared to impose tough enhanced “Sledgehammer” sanctions on Russia. Joint bipartisan Senate legislation co-sponsored by Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) would dramatically upgrade current economic sanctions on Russia and countries trading with it.
On the House of Representatives side, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) agreed, “I think sanctions are called for” to “bring an end to this unjust war in Ukraine.”
Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on both on the ground and in the air; Moscow’s infantry attacks continue to chip away at Ukrainian territory, while air raids using swarms of drones and ballistic missiles shatter the night sky over Ukrainian cities and towns. Civilians are deliberately targeted in a morbid plan to break morale and to devastate the country through Moscow’s spiderweb of Shahed drones and missile strikes.
Significantly as summer moves on, the Ukraine stalemate faces three key variables:
First, the new Trump Strategy. This is backed up by new NATO resolve both against Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine and equally to support enhanced defense spending among the 32 members of the Atlantic Alliance. Most NATO members no longer question nor balk at Trump’s longtime demands to boost their defense spending. So beyond Britain, the Baltics and Poland, major players like Germany shall step up spending levels to 5 percent of GDP. This was unimaginable even last year!
Second, Widening North Korean support to Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a three-day visit to North Korea and gained ebullient promises of support from dictator Kim Jung-un for additional North Korean combat troops and engineers to support Russia’s frontline units in Ukraine. Last year Pyongyang sent at least 12,000 troops, now they are expected to send 6,000 additional forces. Equally more than 12 million 152mm artillery shells have been provided to Moscow’s arsenal.
Third, China’s mercurial political and military role. Perhaps this poses the biggest question mark in the geopolitical equation. While Beijing hasn’t been a direct participant in the conflict, the Chinese communists clearly profit from the ongoing war. Why? Precisely because it ties down both American power, depletes U.S. weapons supplies and draws focus away from China. Equally, because it weakens Russia too, a quiet unstated goal of Beijing’s Marxist mandarins.
Nonetheless in early 2022 just prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a “no limits” partnership with Moscow and since then political and economic ties have strengthened.Just last week China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, curiously told the European Union Foreign Affairs Minister Kaja Kallas that “Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China.”
Multiple diplomatic sources cite this following a four-hour meeting with EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas in Brussels which “featured tough but respectful exchanges.”
A European Union statement on Ukraine, cites Kaja Kallas “highlighted the serious threat Chinese companies' support for Russia’s illegal war poses to European security.” She urged China to immediately cease all material support that sustains Russia’s military industrial complex and called on China to back a full and unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine.”
“Chinese companies are Moscow’s lifeline to sustain its war against Ukraine,” Kallas added.
We are witnessing a re-alignment of the geopolitical stars confronting Russia’s aggression in Ukraine; The Trump Administration, the U.S. Congress, and key NATO allies all working in close coordination to support Ukraine’s freedom and sovereignty.
In a key White House meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, President Trump underscored he was “very unhappy” with Russia reflecting Moscow’s moves in foot dragging over a Ukraine peace settlement.
Donald Trump moreover threatened secondary tariffs on Russia of 100% if “we don't have a deal within 50 days”.
On such actions may rest Ukraine’s hinge of fate.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014).
Free Press International
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