Without the massive expansion of voting by mail, President Donald Trump would have "almost certainly" won re-election in 2020, according to a new study which examined the likely impact that fraudulent mail-in ballots had in the 2020 vote.
Researchers in the study by the Heartland Institute gauged the probable impact that fraudulent mail-in ballots cast for both then-candidate Joe Biden and Trump would have had on the overall 2020 election results.
The study was based on data obtained from a Heartland/Rasmussen survey in December that revealed that roughly one in five mail-in voters admitted to potentially fraudulent actions in the 2020 election.
The December survey, which Trump referred to as “the biggest story of the year,” found that roughly 20 percent of mail-in voters engaged in at least one potentially fraudulent action in the 2020 election, such as voting in a state where they were no longer permanent residents.
After the researchers carried out additional analyses of the data, they concluded that mail-in ballot fraud “significantly” impacted the 2020 presidential election.
“Had the 2020 election been conducted like every national election has been over the past two centuries, wherein the vast majority of voters cast ballots in-person rather than by mail, Donald Trump would have almost certainly been re-elected,” the report’s authors wrote.
Over 43 percent of 2020 votes were cast by mail, the highest percentage in U.S. history.
The Heartland study also calculated the potential impact that fraudulent mail-in ballots might have produced in the six key swing states that Biden reportedly won.
The researchers analyzed the electoral results for the six swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — under the 28.2 percent fraudulent mail-in ballot scenario that they estimated based on the raw survey data.
Then they calculated the electoral results in the six states under the different scenarios, each with a lower assumed percentage of fraudulent ballots, ranging from 28.2 percent all the way down to 1 percent.
For each of the 29 scenarios that they assessed, the researchers calculated the estimated number of fraudulent ballots, which were then subtracted from overall 2020 vote totals to generate a new estimate for vote totals.
Overall, of the 29 different scenarios presented in the study, the researchers concluded that Trump would have won the 2020 election in all but three.
Specifically, they calculated that the only scenarios that would affirm the official 2020 election result, namely that candidate Biden won, were mail-in ballot fraud levels between 1 and 3 percent of ballots cast.
Mail-in ballot fraud rates higher than 3 percent would, according to the study, mean more fraudulent Biden votes that should be subtracted from the total, putting Trump ahead.
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