Realignment: Poll data reveals a shift to the right

FPI / January 21, 2020

Analysis by Kelli Ballard, LibertyNation.com

As the impeachment trial for President Donald J. Trump begins in earnest, one likely wonders how much damage has been done to the nation. Have we lost faith in the system? What does it mean when politicians change parties, such as freshman Representative Jefferson Van Drew (NJ), who left the side of the Democrats and joined the right? Are the parties realigning, and, if so, is it because of Trump?

The left would like you to think so and to believe that the shift is going toward the Dems because of the “racist” president. However, the numbers tell a different story, one that leads toward growth on the GOP side since Barack Obama’s presidency.

Meet the Press conducted a poll to see how much (or little) things have changed since 2010. According to the data reported, in 2010 and 2019 voters identified the same: 37% affiliated with the GOP and 42% with the Democrats. That, according to the TV program, wasn’t the big issue. Instead, it focused on education and gender.

In 2010, the Democrats had a plus-11 margin of voters with a high school or less education, while the GOP had a two-point lead of members with a college or more education. In 2019, these roles reversed, with more on the left having college degrees or higher with a plus-11 margin, according to the data. The GOP, on the other hand, now leads with voters having a high school or lower education by a five-point margin.

“The Gender Divide,” as termed on the show, consists of only two categories – strange, that, when it seems there are more than 70 gender types today – suburban women and men 50 years or older. Apparently, suburban women vote Democrat, and, since Trump has taken office, that number has grown from a three-point margin in 2010 to a 13-point lead in 2019. Mature men had the distinction of representing the GOP with a four-point lead in 2010 and growing to a 16-point margin.

So, what this boils down to is that the GOP is made up of grumpy old men with high school or less education while the Dems are supported by educated women.

Cambridge Core asked the question: “Is the United States on the brink of a regime change?” Following up on the thought, it answered:

 “As early as 2016, in its annual rating of democracy in 167 countries, for example, The Economist reclassified the United States as a ‘flawed democracy’ (as opposed to a ‘full democracy’), largely due to eroding public confidence in American political institutions as documented in surveys by Gallup, Pew, and others.”

Obviously, this is not the first time there has been unrest in the government. Take, for example, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 when the Democrats came into power, and then in the 1980s when Ronald Reagan’s era saw the return of the Republicans and conservatism.

What, other than unhappiness with a president, causes the realignment of parties? It’s rarely just one specific event but rather a combination of factors that can include a crisis, a long-term social transformation, and the economy, to name a few. Those on the left claim they are resurging, especially after Obama’s popularity, which they hoped would bring in a new era of liberal reform. However, the country is divided and fighting amongst itself. Government officials are trying to take away our Second Amendment rights, causing massive protests in Virginia. How have the American people reacted? Have some on the right, as the left suggests, started migrating over to the Democrats?

Not according to a Gallup Poll study; in fact, the opposite is true.

The breakdown of the percentage of Americans that identified with a particular party:

January 2010 (Obama era):

Republicans – 28%
Independents – 36%
Democrats – 34%

January 2017 (Obama on the way out and Trump on the way in):

Republicans – 28%
Independents – 44%
Democrats – 25%

December 2019 (just before impeachment trial):

Republicans – 28%
Independents – 41%
Democrats – 28%

For nearly two decades, the number of people identifying as Republicans has stayed the same while Democrats have lost about 6%. Not surprising is the increase in Independents, as the two sides of the aisle continue to fight and argue.

Another interesting bit of information from the poll shows which way Independents lean:

January 2010 (Obama era):

Republican – 43%
Democrat – 48%

January 2017 (Obama out and Trump coming into office):

Republican – 44%
Democrat – 43%

December 2019:

Republican – 45%
Democrat – 43%

The data show the trend, despite what the left would like to claim, of Republicans gaining more support and not less during the Trump administration. Even with the impeachment, only the third ever in America’s history, the right still stands by its president and draws support from the opposition.

Free Press International