Political odds: Hillary Clinton’s last-minute sprint?

FPI / October 15, 2019

Analysis by Mark Angelides, LibertyNation.com

It’s been a tough couple of weeks for President Trump as he has seen his approval rating duck, dive, and spring back with greater speed than a pro boxer. Finishing the week on 49%, Trump appears to be weathering the impeachment inquiry debacle well; possibly due to a punchy retaliation campaign that has swelled his campaign coffers to new heights.

Donald Trump’s main competitor for the White House is still – according to betting odds – Elizabeth Warren, yet national polling is giving Joe Biden the edge for now. But will this all be about to change? With just a couple of well-placed comments, Hillary Clinton has covertly implied that she might be convinced to enter the 2020 race; her polling numbers show that she could threaten the Democrat pecking order.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:
Donald Trump – 49% ( + 1% )
Congress – 18% ( no change )

What The Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:
Elizabeth Warren – 5/6
Joe Biden – 7/2
Pete Buttigieg – 10/1
Bernie Sanders – 10/1
Hillary Clinton – 10/1
Andrew Yang – 11/1
Kamala Harris – 14/1

The big news this week is that former Trump challenger Hillary Clinton has jumped straight into joint third alongside Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. While this stunning entry has yet to impact the odds of the other contenders, just one more signal that she’s willing to run could upset the whole applecart. To get such high odds straight off the bat signifies that there are a lot of potential Clinton voters out there and that she could command the field if she chose to run.

Joe Biden is still in second position in the betting odds and losing his grip on the first place in national polling. Whether this is due to a strong campaign push by Elizabeth Warren or as a result of being caught up (accidentally?) in the impeachment inquiry remains to be seen.

Presidential Election:
Donald Trump – 6/5
Elizabeth Warren – 5/2
Joe Biden – 7/1
Andrew Yang – 16/1
Pete Buttigieg – 20/1
Bernie Sanders – 20/1
Hillary Clinton – 22/1
Kamala Harris – 25/1
Mike Pence – 40/1
Nikki Haley – 50/1
Cory Booker – 66/1
Beto O’Rourke – 66/1
Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1

In terms of who is on track to win the White House come 2020, President Trump still has the odds in his favor. There has been little change this week other than the late entry of Clinton who appears to have jumped from nowhere to threatening the top spots.

However, from Clinton’s point of view, toying with the idea of another presidential run may be more about having fun and promoting her latest book. She can tease all she wants, but as long as she doesn’t make a firm commitment, the profile of her latest tome will be through the roof. The danger here – for Clinton – is that she begins to believe the press that she is the only person who can defeat Donald Trump.

Donald Trump:
Impeachment – 2/5
Resignation – 1/12
Trump & Putin to take a Vacation together during Trump’s 1st Presidential Term – 125/1
Trump will ban Irish People during his first term – 500/1

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