Midterms: White suburban women favor GOP by 12 points

FPI / November 3, 2022

A bellwether for recent elections has been where white suburban women stand. For the 2022 midterms, inflation is by far the most important issue and, as a result, white suburban women favor Republicans by 15 points, according to a Nov. 2 Wall Street Journal Poll.

The new poll represents a 27-point swing away from Democrats since August.

White suburban women represent 20 percent of the electorate and how they vote is seen as a key indicator for which party will control Congress after the Nov. 8 vote.

In the survey of white suburban women, 66% said inflation is causing major financial hardship, up from 54 percent in August.

The survey found that 54% believe that Joe Biden’s economy is in a recession and 74% say his economy is headed down the wrong track.

Overall, 74% of respondents said the nation is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 65% who felt that way in August.

In contrast, abortion, the top issue for many Democrats, is seen by poll respondents as less relevant than the faltering economy. “It’s absolutely true that these women have shifted their gaze more on the economy than abortion,” Democrat pollster Molly Murphy told the Journal.

Biden’s approval rating among white suburban women has also shrunk. In August, it was above water (51-48). Wednesday’s polling shows it is now dramatically underwater (38-60).

Among the demographic in the poll, former President Donald Trump is now favored over Biden in a 2024 potential match-up.

If the 2024 election were between Biden and Trump, 41% of respondents said they would vote for Biden and 52% for Trump. In August, 55% said Biden and 39% Trump.

Meanwhile, Republican candidates continue to surge in key races nationwide:

New Hampshire

RealClearPolitics has updated its Senate projection, predicting that Trump-backed Republican Don Bolduc will triumph against incumbent Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan.

Bolduc has been surging in recent weeks, prompting the GOP to inject cash into ad buys to bolster his candidacy. The RCP update follows a St. Anselm College poll showing Bolduc with a 1% lead over Hassan.

Democrats had expected Bolduc to do so poorly in a general election that they actually spent money to support his main GOP primary rival in hopes of paving the way for Bolduc's victory. Leftist media had gushed that Bolduc's victory gave Democrats "the race they wanted."

But Bolduc has made up significant ground since September, and according to the RealClearPolitics adjusted average, which corrects for underpolling of Republicans in the recent cycle, Bolduc now leads Hassan by 1.5 points and projects the seat as a Republican pick-up, reclassified from leaning Democrat.

Arizona

GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, in a tight race with Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly, is expected to receive a bounce in support after the withdrawal from the race of libertarian candidate Marc Victor.

Victor had been polling at up to 6% support, dropped out of the race on Tuesday and endorsed Masters.

"Marc Victor joins a growing list of Arizonans from across the political spectrum who are fed up with open borders, big government corruption, and rising crime," Masters said in a statement. "We are building a broad coalition to defeat the worst senator in America."

Trump endorsed Masters, a venture capitalist, back in June. The endorsement helped propel Masters to victory in the GOP primary.

As the race has tightened in the past few days, Masters has enjoyed a last-minute flood of money from GOP-aligned groups.

Georgia

Republican candidate Herschel Walker, who has been endorsed by Trump, trailed Democrat incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock in the polls for much of the summer.

But after far outperforming expectations in his single debate with Warnock, Walker holds 2% lead, according to the RCP adjusted average, and election forecasters categorize the race as a toss-up.

Last week, former President Barack Obama lambasted Walker as a "celebrity that wants to be a politician." Walker responded that he's a "warrior for God" and would pray for Obama, who, he noted, lost Georgia in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.

Ohio

J.D. Vance, another Trump-backed candidate who is unpopular with the political establishment, is favored to win against Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan.

Vance, a venture capitalist and author of the best-selling memoir "Hillbilly Elegy," is leading Ryan by 2 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average (a commanding 8 points in the adjusted average).

Washington

Republican Senate nominee Tiffany Smiley has cut a 14-point gap in September to 4-points in the latest polling as she tries to knock off longtime Democrat incumbent Sen. Patty Murray in a heavily blue state.

Outside groups recently scrambled to pump money into the Washington race to avert what would be a devastating loss for Democrats.

"Washington State is really deep blue," GOP strategist Colin Reed told The Hill. "Sen. Murray's been around forever, for better or worse, so she's a known commodity, she's a tough out. If the red wave is reaching Washington State, then ... 2022 ... is poised to eclipse even 2010 in terms of the size of the Democratic wipeout."

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