The president's party has lost ground in the House in 38 out of 41 midterm elections since the Civil War, according to the Center for Politics.
From 1938 through 2022, the president's party has only gained seats in midterm elections 2 out of 22 times, according to The American Presidency Project.
Behind President Donald Trump's MAGA and America First movements, the Republican Party surged to new heights in 2024.
Does that momentum have to stop in 2026?
An analysis published on Wednesday by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics states that Republicans could retain control of the House and Senate and even add seats.
While Trump's backing in the new GOP remains solid, Democrats are sinking to new lows and are caught up in a civil war over how to fight the White House.
The UVA analysis of “citizen forecasting,” a polling style that has been “highly predictive” overseas, notes that Republicans are focused on keeping control of Congress while Democrats are not confident about their chances.
“The predictions, as they stand, indicate that this ‘iron law’ of incumbent party loss might be broken, with the Republicans keeping control of one, if not both, chambers,” the analysis from three political scientists said.
A new poll from Cygnal shows congressional Republicans with a higher approval rating than Democrats at 49% to 44%.
Cygnal’s survey also showed that Republicans and Democrats are tied at 47% in the midterm elections matchup.
The analysis said, “This is the GOP’s best showing since February.” It cited gains for Republicans among married women, Hispanics, and union members.
Majorities expect Republicans to keep control of the House and Senate, the UVA analysis found. For the House, it was 58%, and for the Senate, it was 57%.
But the 1,000 adults polled said that they expect Trump’s approval rating to falter and are pessimistic about the economy, the nation’s No. 1 issue.
“These results point to the challenges faced by the Democratic Party today; even with low levels of optimism about the economy and expectations about declines in presidential approval, voters seem skeptical that they can translate these challenges for the incumbents into electoral success. In fact, it’s possible that the challenges faced by Democrats help to explain these findings: On both the House and Senate control questions, Democratic respondents were a little less likely to predict their own side would win majorities than Republicans were,” the analysis said.
It concluded: “The voting public, as of this spring, appears to expect that the Republicans will likely remain in control of both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. These views are held by respondents who, at least collectively, know the current political composition of Congress. They believe that Republicans will maintain their majority, despite their perceptions of a rocky economic road ahead, led by a president with faltering in-office performance ratings. Moreover, they hold this belief in Republican congressional control in the face of the rule of midterm loss for the incumbent party, which points to a return of Democratic control.”
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