GOP pulls even with Democrats in polling ahead of midterms

FPI / March 3, 2026

A new poll conducted by the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS), the Harris Poll, and HarrisX suggests that Republicans have drawn even with Democrats with eight months to go until the midterm elections.

The poll of 1,999 registered voters, which was conducted online between Feb. 25 and 26, found that 50% of Americans would vote for the Republican candidate in their congressional district and 50% would vote for the Democrat if the midterms were held today.

It was a stunning improvement for the GOP, which trailed the Democrats 54%-46% in the January poll.

When presented with the following hypothetical campaign message from the GOP, 54% of respondents said they found it “believable”:

"Republicans say that they are returning responsibility to government by arresting criminals, closing the borders, keeping tax es low, and lowering energy costs. We can’t go back to the Democrats who were allowing our cities and way of life to deteriorate and prices on energy and food to soar while fraud took billions and billions of dollars of their giveaway programs."

Just 48% of respondents said they found this hypothetical message from Democrats credible:

"Democrats say we are for affordability. Free government services. Free housing and transportation. Healthcare for all. Free student loans. We have the money and can provide these services if you elect us to office and we will bring down the billionaires."

Currently, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House with three vacancies.

The vacancies:

New Jersey Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned on Nov. 20, 2025. A special election is set for April 16 to fill the seat.

Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Green resigned on Jan. 5, 2026. A special election to fill the seat is set for March 10.

California Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa passed away on Jan. 6, 2026. A special election to fill the seat is set for Aug, 4.

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Free Press International
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