Information released by the governments of Germany, Hungary, and Taiwan show unprecedented decreases in birth rates since rollout of the Covid-19 vaccines.
The state of North Dakota, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland saw similar declines.
Germany saw a 13% drop in the first quarter of 2022 compared with Q1 of 2021. Hungary’s data reports a 15% decline during the same period. In Taiwan, birthrates declined by an astounding 23% in May of 2022, compared with May of 2021.
These declines are statistically extraordinary, explains Igor Chudov, a Substack blogger and owner of a mathematics website. Chudov characterized the 13% drop as a “nine-sigma event.”
For perspective, an 8-sigma event might occur once in 803 trillion days. A 9-sigma event, by comparison, “is so unlikely to occur by chance, that it would naturally happen as rarely as an asteroid striking the Earth,” he writes.
Taiwan's 23% decline, however, is an astonishing “26-sigma event.”
It “can be described as ‘unimaginable’ in terms of the likelihood of happening due to random chance,” Chudov, notes, adding it is as statistically unlikely apart from human causation as an event that happens once in “several lifetimes of the universe.”
While Hungary’s decline lies somewhere in between these improbabilities, it also offers strong evidence of the cause.
In all of these countries, the decline in birthrate lagged the uptake of vaccination by a majority of childbearing-age adults by precisely nine months.
In Hungary, however, the data from different counties offers something much stronger than mere correlation. Different counties in Hungary had different levels of vaccine participation.
The five counties in Hungary with the highest vaccination rates also had the greatest decline in new births — a -17.4% decline in the most vaccinated versus -4.58% in the least vaccinated counties, adjusted for population. This represents a 12.8% difference across an ethnically homogenous people group.
German officials were quick to write off their own decline as coincidental and claimed, contrary to data out of Belgium, that in the spring of 2021, vaccinations “were offered almost exclusively to older people.” However, comparable Belgian data shows 18 to 49-year-olds began receiving Covid-19 vaccines in the spring of 2021, with the vast majority vaccinated by the end of summer. That is exactly the starting window for a decline in May, if the vaccines were the cause.
Taiwan’s data was even more telling.
Although Taiwanese health officials blame Covid-19 itself as the cause, in truth, Covid-19 infection was virtually zero in Taiwan throughout 2021, by which time the countries nearly universal vaccination was already at 80%. The pandemic did not begin in Taiwan until late June of 2022, well after the decline in births.
These countries are not alone.
North Dakota saw 10% to 13% declines between the months of February and April, 2022 compared with the same months in 2021. The United Kingdom saw a 10% decline. Switzerland saw a similar decline.
Chudov observes that it is unknown whether the drop in birth rates will be temporary or lasting.
He asks, “If this is happening in Q1 in Germany after a MINORITY of 18-49 yo were vaccinated in Q2 2021, what will happen in subsequent quarters? Will the birth rate decline even further?”
Free Press International
