Republicans lead in 9 of the 10 top issues in a new Gallup 2024 election poll.
"Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party," Gallup said.
"The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose."
Washington Examiner columnist Paul Bedard noted: "Voter disgruntlement with Democrats, the Biden-Harris agenda, and the downward direction of America have given former President Donald Trump and the Republicans a big edge in the election."
Gallup said: “Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Chief among these are a Republican advantage in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”
Gallup rated party affiliation as a “strong” driver in election outcomes. In the poll, 48% of respondents said they are, or lean, Republican to 45% who are, or lean, Democrat.
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Republicans haven’t had the advantage in party affiliation in decades. The one time the GOP tied with Democrats was 2004, when Republican President George W. Bush won re-election.
Dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration is also helping the GOP, the poll said: “Biden’s unpopularity could still affect the election to the extent voters transfer their frustrations with the Biden administration to Vice President Kamala Harris. For her part, 44% of U.S. adults approve of the job she is doing as vice president, down slightly from a 47% reading in August.”
Political analysts say another new poll, this one by CNN/SSRS, is also good news for Trump, particularly in the poll's "crosstabs."
A poster to X pointed out that the CNN/SSRS poll historically has overestimated Democrats by some 7 points.
🇺🇲 National poll by CNN/SSRS
Registered voters 🟦 Harris: 47% 🟥 Trump: 47% 🟪 Oliver: 2% 🟩 Stein: 1% July 22-23 poll: Trump 49-46% —— Likely voters 🟦 Harris: 48% 🟥 Trump: 47% 🟪 Oliver: 2% 🟩 Stein: 1% —— Fav/unfav (rvs) • Walz: 36-32 (net: +4) • Harris: 45-49 (-4)… pic.twitter.com/Yc376scUgr — InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2024
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