'Fuzzy' math seen making case for closing economy

FPI / April 15, 2020

According to data from Johns Hopkins University of Medicine’s Coronavirus Resource Center, as of April 13, 0.17 percent of the U.S. population has been infected by the coronavirus. "That means 0.007 percent of America's population has died from the coronavirus — we think," a columnist noted.

The numbers on coronavirus "are ridiculously low. The justification for shutting businesses, closing schools, mandating social distancing, shuttering churches and congregations — arresting pastors and park-goers and people who stand too close to others — the justification for all is to keep the coronavirus numbers low, to keep Americans safe and healthy and free of sickness and death. Specifically, 0.17 and 0.007 percentages of the population low," Cheryl K. Chumley wrote for The Washington Times on April 14.

"Living on a 'what if' of unclear, panicking predictions isn’t exactly living. It’s surviving. It’s surviving in misery," Chumley wrote. "It’s high time for America to return to living — before there’s nothing worth living for in America any more."

As Johns Hopkins also notes: “With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.”

That means the number of positive coronavirus cases will increase as testing increases — but very likely, the number of coronavirus fatalities will drop at the same time.

"And by logical extension — that means the number of recovery cases will hike, as well," Chumley noted.

"For this, we tank an entire economy?"

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that from Oct. 1, 2019, through April 4, 2020, there were between 39 million and 56 million of flu illnesses; between 18 million and 26 million medical visits due to flu; between 410,000 and 740,000 hospitalizations due to flu; and between 24,000 and 62,000 of deaths due to flu.

The CDC says it doesn’t know “the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the U.S.”

Chumley wrote: "But if we go by coronavirus standards — so what? After all, the coronavirus models aren’t giving factual numbers. Neither, in some cases, are doctors and hospitals."

If 39 million Americans were sickened by the flu in the last few months, "that’s nearly 12 percent of the population," Chumley noted. "If 18 million had to visit the doctor for the flu, that’s roughly 5.5 percent of the population. If 410,000 had to be hospitalized, that’s 0.12 percent. If 24,000 died from the flu during this time span, that’s 0.007 percent of all of America."

Chumley continued: "And that’s with a shot to prevent the flu. Now there’s a blaring story to report, in real, frightening death-count time, if ever there was one. So where’s the alarm? Where are the medical experts? Where, by God, are all the face masks to protect you and me and all the good comrades out there tripping over themselves to measure out the proper 6-foot social distancing boundary?"

On the coronavirus, "the health people say it’s all about what can happen that’s the danger. It’s all about prevention," Chumley wrote. "The health wonks — and billionaire philanthropists who are focused on making vaccines for the world — say the precautions of these last few weeks have saved us, and the precautions to come will save us even more."

"Sure. Except the math doesn’t really add up. The math, in other words, is fuzzy."

Meanwhile, Gov. Andrew Cuomo pointed to signs of optimism as total hospitalizations finally showed a net decrease in New York.

"The volume is still high," Cuomo said, adding the escalation in deaths stemmed primarily from patients in nursing homes, not hospitals. That's something the state is looking at, Cuomo said, but given the vulnerability of the population, there are limits to what can be done to save those lives.

"Take some comfort in the fact that we have demonstrated we can actually control the spread of the virus — now, it took tremendous pain to do it but thank God we can control the spread," the governor said Tuesday. "What we are doing today will control the infection rate tomorrow. You stop what you are doing or you behave differently and you will get a different result."

Free Press International