By John J. MetzlerChina’s growing naval power is regularly and systematically harassing the waters around Taiwan in what appears to be rehearsal exercises for a future invasion of the self-ruled democratic island.
Units of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) as well as swarms of military aircraft regularly probe the waters and skies near Taiwan, often crossing into the island’s sovereign airspace and waters.
This is not a drill; Nor does it signify an imminent attack but an aggressive Grey Zone operation.
Yet the size and scope of the plans seem to go beyond Beijing’s bullying over the past few years and now extends to more active measures.
As always China’s excuse is simple; It claims the island as a part of the People’s Republic of China and is increasingly nervous that Taiwan’s fiercely democratic government is allegedly pushing the “Taiwan independence issue,” long a red line to Beijing’s Marxist Mandarins, not to mention the U.S. State Department.
Taiwan’s President William Lai has not formally called for “formal independence” but naturally supports a larger international profile and space for the island’s 23 million people.
“The joint exercise and training conducted by the Eastern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the vicinity of Taiwan Island is a resolute punishment for the Lai authorities' rampant 'independence' provocations,’” China's Taiwan Affairs Office warned.
A slick video of a poster accompanying the drills titled "Closing In," depicted Chinese forces surrounding the island and was released by Beijing’s Eastern Command. A series of crude videos, one titled “Subdue Demons and Vanquish Evils,” reduced Beijing’s provocations to that of a violent video game.
China’s recent exercises came only two days after U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, visited Japan and the Philippines during which he underscored American defense commitments.
Following the Chinese civil war ending in 1949, Mao’s communist forces seized the Mainland while the Nationalist troops retrenched to the island of Taiwan. Since that time, two separate <em>de facto</em> and fundamentally different governments have ruled their respective territories but both adhering to the convenient myth of one China.
The Republic of China on Taiwan formerly supported the position “one China with different interpretations.”
Any rhetorical tampering with Taiwan’s official title/name or status quo remains a political lightening rod to the Chinese Communist Party that literally sees red over the island’s growing assertiveness.
China has never renounced the use of military force to bring Taiwan “back to the Motherland.”
In its Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, in the Unclassified Report, the U.S. states that China is using complex campaigns “featuring coercive military, economic and influence operations short of war to assert its positions and strengths against others, reserving more destructive tools for full scale conflict.”
The study adds, “Beijing will likely expand these campaigns to advance unification with Taiwan.”
Still this action in early April was unique; Carrier-based aircraft participated in the exercises.
This was planned to intimidate Taiwan and to rehearse complicated carrier operations of launching and retrieving aircraft. Though China has three aircraft carriers, they currently possess neither the capacity nor experience to maintain sustained flight operations. Nonetheless, China’s navy operates nearby Taiwan, just 80 miles off the Mainland coast, not halfway around the world as are U.S. Navy carrier battle groups.
The PLAN Carrier Shandong and its escort vessels were operating in the Philippine Sea hundreds of miles southeast of Taiwan; A combination of military fighter/bomber jets, UAV’s and helicopters circled Taiwan; Over a day, 76 PLA aircraft, 15 PLAN ships and four official ships were detected operating around Taiwan with 37 sorties crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
Significantly, many aircraft originated from the Shandong, not Mainland bases as previously so.
Contrary to other East Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea, the United States no longer maintains a military defense treaty with Taiwan; The agreement was abrogated in 1979 by President Jimmy Carter at the start of diplomatic relations and widening economic trade with the People’s Republic of China.
Three key points emerge:
- Despite not having a formal defense Treaty nor diplomatic ties, the U.S. must keep clear and credible military ties with Taiwan.
- Tariffs on Taiwan pose a challenge but investment and procurement opportunity.
- Taiwan must significantly upgrade its defense profile. Creative diplomacy would swap U.S. tariffs for increased Taiwan investment in purchasing American weapons. Currently Taiwan is taking delivery of the first batch of 66 long awaited F-16 C/D Block fighter jets from the U.S.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014).
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