Geostrategy-Direct
By Richard Fisher
It has been building before the eyes of most observers for over a decade, but only this past March did President Joe Biden sign a highly classified “Nuclear Employment Guidance” document that directs the Department of Defense to respond to “possible coordinated nuclear challenges from China, Russia and North Korea,” according to an Aug. 21 New York Times (NYT) article.
This article by David E. Sanger, also notes:
“In the past, the likelihood that American adversaries could coordinate nuclear threats to outmaneuver the American nuclear arsenal seemed remote. But the emerging partnership between Russia and China, and the conventional arms North Korea and Iran are providing to Russia for the war in Ukraine have fundamentally changed Washington’s thinking. Already, Russia and China are conducting military exercises together. Intelligence agencies are trying to determine whether Russia is aiding the North Korean and Iranian missile programs in return.”But this was not such a seemingly sudden development.
On April 15, 2012, North Korea revealed prominently in a military parade that a mock-up intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was being carried on a large 16-wheel transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) just provided by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC).
Since then, North Korea has revealed three liquid fueled ICBMs and one solid-fuel ICBM all carried by variants of this same CASIC TEL, which surely indicates some level of coordination between China and the North Korean liquid and solid rocket making enterprise.
Why would China help North Korea to become a nuclear ICBM state? Most likely so China and North Korea could coordinate nuclear incidents by Pyongyang to divert Washington’s military attention to assist a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Furthermore, through the 2010s Russia and China increased their cooperation in strategic missile defense, to include Russia selling China very long-range radar technology that it could use to track and possibly target attacking U.S. and Indian ballistic missiles.
Such “defensive” strategic nuclear coordinate likely also indicates that Russia and China are also engaging in “offensive” strategic nuclear coordination.
Thus, the Biden Administration is correct to recognize the real threat that China, Russia and North Korea could potentially coordinate new levels of nuclear threats against the United States, but this realization was slow in developing.
And of greater concern, the Biden Administration realization occurs at a time when this China-Russia-North Korea Dictatorship Coalition could achieve decisive nuclear superiority over the United States.
To Russia’s current acknowledged 1,500 deployed strategic nuclear warheads (with how many more unacknowledged), one must add the U.S. Intelligence Community’s estimate that China could be building up to 1,500 deployed warheads by 2035 (though other estimates see an increase to several thousand), and now North Korea could be building up to the ability to launch over 500 warheads by the mid-2030s.
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