Special to WorldTribune.com
By John J. MetzlerAnother major country has flipped politically to the conservative column. After three years of a drifting center-Left coalition government, voters elected the conservative (small c) Christian Democratic Union CDU in Germany’s parliamentary elections. Yet what was expected to be a massive win for the likely new Chancellor Frederich Merz, became a bit disappointing when his party gained 28.5 percent of the vote.
The outgoing Social Democrats (SPD) under Olaf Scholz were handed a “bitter defeat” with a 16.4 percent vote share while their coalition partner the Greens slipped to 11.6 percent. Ominously the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 20.8 percent, double its tally of four years ago.The socialist Left Party gained 8 percent.
Given that no party holds 316 seats to form a majority in the 630 seat Bundestag in Berlin, now comes the tough task of cobbling together a coalition. Significantly the winning CDU and their Bavarian sister party CSU refuse to cooperate or form a government with the populist AfD.
Three key issues dominated the German election: The Economy, Ukraine, and Illegal Migration.
The Economy
Germany’s once vaunted GDP numbers have been grim and lagging; between 2019 and 2024 while the Euro area has grown 4 percent and the USA over 10 percent, Germany’s once robust heavy manufacturing sector has stalled. Energy costs, largely from a dangerous dependence on Russian gas supplies, now interrupted, as well as costly uber Green restrictive climate policies, and the counterweight of Chinese competition has changed the once rosy paradigm for Germany’s economic growth.
Often described as the locomotive of European growth, Germany’s economic engine seemed sidetracked by high energy prices, the reverberating geopolitical instability of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and now the threat of U.S. tariffs have combined into a kind of perfect storm facing the new government. Merz wants to energize the economy through expanding free enterprise.
These early parliamentary elections were called precisely because Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD coalition with the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) collapsed in a vote of no confidence last November.
Ukraine
The historic and easy camaraderie between America and Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU) while still strong is not as instinctively compatible as in the past when leaders like Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Kohl or even Angela Merkel were Chancellor. Friedrich Merz, (69) both a politician and successful business lawyer, doesn’t comfortably fit into that political mode.
“Europe must become stronger again and Germany must become more involved in the European Union,” Merz told a rally of his CDU/CSU alliance. He has stressed wider military spending and closer ties with France, the UK and Poland as a counter to what is perceived as lagging American interest in European security ties. Even the previous SPD coalition in Berlin had significantly increased defense spending following Russia’s war in Ukraine.
After the vote Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Merz and asked Germany to “bring real peace closer to Ukraine.” Following the U.S., Germany remains Ukraine’s largest military assistance donor. Most German political parties, except AfD support helping Kyiv. A firm proponent of close transatlantic security relations, Frederich Metz remains concerned that the Trump Administration appears to have shifted its focus from Europe.
Migration
There’s no question that Germany along with France, Britain and Sweden have faced massive illegal migration from Afghanistan, Africa and Syria. Yet in 2015, former Chancellor Angela Merkel confidently opened the doors to a flood of Syrian migrants of which one million legally entered and settled in the country. To a point this worked, but in recent months Germany has faced regular terrorist attacks by many migrants especially Afghans. Friedrich Merz wants tough border controls and migrant asylum policies.
The rise of illegal migration has seen the growth in popularity of the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) a once marginal Eastern German-rooted group a decade ago which has now surged to the second largest party in the German <em>Bundestag</em>. AfD’s rise is grounded in unchecked migration and lackluster job opportunities. The party appeals to disenfranchised voters among former Social Democrats and frustrated labor union voters across the country’s old industrial heartlands.
Now Frederich Mertz must build a coalition; an optimistic date is forming a new government by Easter. Though the CDU/CSU have become the largest party in the <em>Bundestag </em>with 208 seats, he will have to form a Grand Coalition with the defeated Social Democrats (SPD) who hold 120.
Germany’s export driven economy has faced global headwinds for a number of years; but now with the threat of tariffs from the Trump Administration, the economic horizon has become cloudy. Equally the European geopolitical game-board may be changing, and most countries are posturing for advantage.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014).
Free Press International
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