The absence of Republican Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz of Florida and Elise Stefanik of New York will mean Republicans have a precarious majority in the House of Representatives when the 119th Congress convenes on Jan. 3, 2025.
The margin, at least until special elections can be held to fill those seats, will be so thin the GOP may be in position where it can't afford to lose even one Republican vote in passing President-elect Donald Trump's agenda.
As of Friday, Republicans had a 220-214 majority. Without Gaetz, Stefanik, and Waltz, the margin is 217-214. There is still one uncalled race, California's District 13. In that race, Democrat Adam Gray leads GOP incumbent John Duarte thanks in large part to ballot "curing" efforts by Nancy Pelosi's daughter.
If Gray goes on to win the seat, the GOP majority without Gaetz, Stefanik, and Waltz will be 217-215. In that scenario, if Speaker Mike Johnson loses one Republican vote (and likely won't have any Democrats cooperating in passing Trump's agenda) it would result in a 216-216 tie that essentially kills the legislation.
Gaetz easily won reelection in Florida's District 1, but immediately resigned from Congress after Trump selected him for Attorney General. But Gaetz withdrew from consideration and later said he would not be in the next Congress.
Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis set the primary election for the District 1 seat for Jan. 28, 2025, and the general election to fill Gaetz's seat will take place April 1, 2025.
A number of candidates have thrown their hats into the race in the heavily conservative district, including state Reps. Michelle Salzman and Joel Rudman as well as former U.S. Army Capt. John Frankman. Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis said in a post on X that he was “strongly considering” a run for the seat.
The same dates, Jan. 28 and April 1, will see the special election to fill Waltz's seat in Florida's District 6, which also has a strong conservative lean and stretches along the state’s east coast from southern Jacksonville to the Daytona Beach area.
Florida state Sen. Randy Fine announced he is running for the seat and he has Trump's endorsement.
Trump selected Waltz as national security adviser.
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In New York's District 21, which covers a swath of upstate New York that extends from the Canadian border to just south of Albany, Republican Anthony Constantino, owner of the Sticker Mule printing company, has declared he will run for the seat and fund his own campaign. Otto Dean Miller, 27, has filed paperwork to run as a Republican.
Other Republicans who have expressed interest in running include Rensselaer County Executive Steven McLaughlin, former member of the Greenwich Planning Board Jeremy Messina, outgoing District 19 Rep. Marc Molinaro, and Schoharie County Republican Party chair and state assemblymember from the 102nd district Chris Tague.
“What it really boils down to is who is the most reliable person we could put there to support President Trump, you know,” New York State Young Republicans Chair Peter Giunta said. “And I do think that that’s something that definitely weighs in my mind and weighs in the minds of party leaders out there.”
Two Democrats have entered the race thus far: Steve Holden, financial management consultant and nominee for the 24th district in 2022; and Paula Collins, cannabis tax attorney and nominee for the 21st district in 2024.
Democrats who have expressed interest in the seat are Billy Jones, state assemblymember from the 115th district, and Middleburgh Mayor Timothy Knight.
Stefanik was chosen by Trump to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.
Upon Stefanik resigning her seat in January, New York Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul will have 90 days to call a special election.
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